The Fiscal Cliff

The Fiscal Cliff 

It’s hard to turn on the news at the moment without someone discussing the U.S Fiscal Cliff and the dire consequences of plunging over it. Will a solution be found in time? Will the Democrats and Republicans continue to lock horns or will sense prevail?

 Much of the coverage is the usual ill informed jawboning by the media looking to fill airtime at a traditionally quiet time of year, however this is an important issue and it is already having an impact on financial markets, so let’s take a closer look.

So what is the Fiscal Cliff?

The history of the Fiscal Cliff goes way back to President Reagan’s time in office. Together with the Congress, his administration and the many since have periodically imposed a time limit on themselves to force them to agree to unpalatable tax increases and spending cuts in order to reduce the country’s Federal Deficit.

 In a nutshell, the current inability to solve the issue is because the Republicans want additional cuts in spending rather than higher taxes for the ‘rich’, whilst President Obama and the Democrats want to cut spending less severely but recoup more in taxes from those earning over US$250000 a year. This is as much an ideological debate as anything else, which explains why they are having such a hard time finding a solution.

The last time this came to a head was in August of 2011 during the Debt Ceiling discussions , and in the best traditions of politicians never to solve anything today that can be put off till tomorrow, they kicked the can down the road until Dec 31^st 2012. After which time, unless an agreement is found, automatic spending cuts and tax increases will be triggered to the tune of US$560 billion, reducing the deficit by roughly half.

 This would have a huge impact with estimates suggesting a loss of 2 million jobs and a 4% fall in GDP in 2013, leading to a severe recession.

Unfortunately there are now a couple of other complicating issues that were not anticipated when the date was set.

Firstly there is the expiration of the Bush tax cuts (tax cuts implemented by President Bush to boost the economy at the time, and subsequently continued by the Obama administration). The expiration of these cuts will act the same as a tax hike, and the fact that they are also scheduled at the same time will only compound the problem.

Secondly, at some point in the first quarter the U.S will once again run up against its Debt Ceiling.

 This is the maximum amount that the government can borrow at any given time, and was set back in August 2011 when both a backstop date of 31^st Dec 2012 was agreed for the triggering of the ‘fiscal cliff’, and an increase of US$2.4 trillion was authorised for the debt ceiling bringing it up to the current level ofUS$16.4 trillion.

This 2011 debate brought the issue into the public eye for the first time, and was a bruising political slugfest, with a deal only being reached at the 11^th hour, and now only sixteen months and US$2.4 trillion later here we are again.

Certainly the repercussions of not getting a deal done are extremely unpleasant. With one of the implications being that the U.S govt would no longer be able to issue more debt to raise funds, it would be unable to meet its financial obligations and the risk of default would increase dramatically.

 We can now see that whilst most people are simply focussed on a resolution to the fiscal cliff, there are a number of issues intertwined, making it a very complex high stakes game indeed. There is a lot to play for and a heck of a lot to lose.

So what do I think will happen?

Well I think there are three potential outcomes:

1.     The politicians on both sides could finally grasp the enormity of what the country faces and putting their ideological dogma to one side agree to a long term plan of eradicating the financial deficit and paying down the country’s debt.

I give this plan about the same chance as Santa coming down my chimney and leaving me the keys to a brand new Ferrari on Christmas Day.

2.     Either the Republicans or the Democrats can see some political advantage in driving the country over the cliff and potentially gaining a better deal once the tax hikes and spending cuts start to bite.

This is a hard one to read but I have absolutely no doubt that either side would do it if they felt they could obtain a clear advantage.

3.     Politicians do what they do best. Grandstand and talk tough long enough to gain approval with their own electorate, and then strike some half-baked deal that solves nothing, kicks the can even further down the road but allows both sides to walk away claiming victory.

Now, call me old fashioned but I know what my money is on.

Of course there is one way they could thrash out a deal very quickly. All they need do is cancel the Christmas holiday for congress, mandate 100% attendance and maintain the session until an agreement is reached. I am sure this would inspire a plague-like outbreak of commonsense and accord.

Unfortunately the likelihood is that politicians will do nothing meaningful until the crisis becomes so severe that the general populace rise up and demand change. At that point they will listen or be voted out, but the chance to solve the problems will have already been lost.

The problems the U.S faces are mammoth, but fortunately for it, there are other regions with more pressing problems. Having been an oasis of calm for a few months now, the Euro zone will burst back onto the scene in 2013 (followed closely by Japan) as the sovereign debt crisis really bites, leading to the U.S temporarily regaining its flight to quality ‘safe haven’ status until it is the last man standing.

It might help to visualise a fleet of ships all sinking at different rates, and as one slips below the waves the crew clamber in hope onto the next one, until that too slips below the waves so they clamber onto the next, and so on until they are on the final ship, and when that finally sinks there is nowhere to go.

That is the global economy, and that’s what awaits us unless we do something now.

I will try to do another post before year end and give an update on how the financial markets are faring, but just in case the call of the beach is too strong I wish you all a fantastic festive season wherever you may be and see you in 2013.

N.Z Banks: How Safe is your Money?

N.Z Banks: How Safe is your Money?

Most of the developed countries of the world operate some form of retail deposit guarantee scheme designed to protect deposits in the event of a bank collapse. Many had been in existence for some years prior to the 2008 GFC and those countries that didn’t have them quickly implemented them as the crisis developed.

I briefly mentioned the N.Z Retail Deposit Guarantee Scheme back in June, in my post ‘Don’t be a Rabbit in the Headlights’ http://kiwiblackers.blogspot.co.nz/2012/06/dontbe-rabbit-in-headlights-as-we.html

 Here’s a quick reminder-

In New Zealand, the Retail Deposit Guarantee Scheme that was introduced during the depths of the 2008 crisis has now been wound down. It was brought in out of necessity because Australia had already done the same thing and if NZ had not followed suit there would have been a mass exodus of funds across the ditch.

The sole reason the schemes were rushed into being around the globe was to restore investor confidence and prevent a ‘bank run’. Were a serious bank run to occur and the banking system collapse, neither the NZ Government nor many other Governments have the necessary financial muscle to actually guarantee the deposits in their banking systems, it would effectively bankrupt the country. The banking sector is simply too large.

The fact that the guarantee has lapsed has not been an issue over the last few years. During this period N.Z has experienced relative calm after the shock felt during the initial stage of the GFC, so the fact that savings could be lost in the event of a bank collapse has not been a matter for concern in the minds of depositors.

Meanwhile the Government and the Reserve Bank have been working to improve New Zealand’s ability to withstand another shock to the financial system and their solution is the Reserve Bank’s Open Bank Resolution (OBR) policy.

This policy was flagged some months back and is designed to act as a new tool in the case of a bank failure.

In general terms the process works like this –

•      A statutory manager is appointed 

• All means of depositing or withdrawing money are frozen, as are all of the bank’s liabilities.

•      A portion of customer accounts are frozen and all other creditor’s claims are frozen in full (the amount frozen will be determined by the size of the bank’s losses plus a certain degree of slack).

These processes occur immediately, and are completed on the day the bank folds, then the following morning,

•        Bank reopens for core transaction business and to allow depositors to access all bar the frozen portion of their funds.

After that, once the final assessment of losses is known, additional funds will be distributed if available.

There are undoubtedly some good aspects to this policy, especially the quick ring-fencing of liabilities, allowing people swift access to the majority of their funds, but the inclusion of customer deposits in the assets that could be frozen will come as a shock to most people.

Many New Zealanders wrongly think that their savings are still guaranteed should a big bank go under, in spite of the expiry of the N.Z Government’s scheme, and as a consequence are more trusting of the banking system than they probably should be.

Even with the addition of the OBR policy, should a bank get into trouble I believe things will play out in a very similar fashion to previous ‘bank runs’.  

•       Once the OBR policy is triggered, depositors will become aware for the first time that some of their funds are at risk

•        As awareness of the implications of OBR policy become known, depositors will immediately start withdrawing their funds from banking entities with the same risk.

•      This will in turn create a problem for these institutions likely resulting in another OBR event with another bank, and so on.

•        Depositors will be desperately searching for a safe home for their funds and at this point, the Government will have no choice but to once again underwrite the entire banking system or face a massive exodus of funds from N.Z to the many jurisdictions that do have a retail deposit guarantee, creating a system wide banking collapse.

I fail to see what good the OBR policy will do as we will inevitably get the same end result. It seems more of a crisis management tool, designed in part to move some of the risk onto depositors, and little to do with making the banking system more robust and less likely to fail.

Rather than playing  ‘pass the buck’ and just focusing on the management of the next crisis, why don’t they instead look to ways of making the system more balanced, less exposed to risk and therefore less prone to a crisis in the first place?

Let’s have a look at some of the more obvious things that Government and the Reserve Bank could do:

•      Work to decrease our massive reliance upon Australian owned banks.

They currently account for around 90% of New Zealand’s banking sector, a situation that is virtually unprecedented anywhere else in the world. Aside from the fact that our balance of payments problems are exacerbated because so much of their profit is generated in N.Z but returned to Australia , the very fact that so much of our banking is foreign owned and therefore subject to problems within the Australian banking system, increases the risk within our own.

•       Legislate to prevent banks from offering mortgages on ridiculously high Loan to Value ratios (LVR’s).

Banks have repeatedly shown themselves unable to self regulate when it comes to mortgage lending. When the housing market is running hot they chase the perceived ‘easy money’ by offering higher and higher leverage until the obvious happens and the bubble bursts, disrupting the entire banking system. If these LVR’s were capped it would both deprive the housing boom of the fuel it needs to flourish, and stop the imbalances developing in the system in the first place.

•        Raise the risk profile of mortgage lending on the banks books. This will stop them pumping money into the over-inflated and under-productive housing sector

By making mortgage lending ‘riskier’ to the banks, it restricts the volume of mortgage lending they can undertake, and increases the relative attraction of other forms of lending. Over time this will result in a rebalancing of the banks’ lending profile which decreases their overall lending risk, and drives more capital into the business sector where jobs and profits are ultimately generated.

•         Curtail the banks ability to access the wholesale funding markets, forcing them to pay more for domestic savers funds.

Currently the banks are sourcing approximately 30% of their funding from the overseas wholesale market at cheap interest rates. This allows them to offer lower rates to domestic depositors because they are not so dependent upon these funds. This high dependency on overseas money dramatically increases the systemic risk, as should this money flow suddenly dry up things would get very ugly, very quickly!

 This is particularly pertinent as the overwhelming majority of money in the wholesale markets originates from the euro-zone, and when the next leg of the GFC hits, it is there that the impacts will be most felt, with wholesale markets freezing up and likely remaining so for some time.

By restricting their access to overseas funds, you force the banks to chase domestic savings. This will drive up the rates offered on domestic deposits, benefiting savers, and decrease our reliance upon this riskier overseas money. It will also benefit our balance of payments as the interest payments will be staying in the country rather than going overseas.

None of these solutions are in themselves a silver bullet, but implemented as part of a broader strategy might help to make our system more robust, less prone to external shock and with a better lending balance.

It is possible to have a banking system we can rely upon in times of global strife rather than one with obvious weaknesses that will more likely be an ‘Achilles heel’.

Unfortunately the chances of any meaningful change are remote. In his inaugural speech, the new Governor of the Reserve Bank Mr Graeme Wheeler seemed to agree with the pre-existing orthodox approach of his predecessor Mr Bollard, and suggested that although new measures might be introduced they would be more tinkering around the edges than a fundamental overhaul of the system.

It would appear therefore that the fallout from the 2008 GFC didn’t frighten the powers that be sufficiently to undertake any meaningful change. They seem content to tweak the system rather than undertake the required action (like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic), and as a result the safety of deposits during a serious banking event will remain questionable.

I would be very careful where you hold your savings, and be ready and able to move them should the storm clouds start to gather.

The Government and Reserve Bank may be quite sanguine about the risks, believing that the prospects for the global economy are improving and that another risk event like 2008 is quite a remote possibility.

 I don’t share their enthusiasm.

The New Zealand Property Market - The Bubble that Never Bursts

The New Zealand Property Market - The Bubble that Never Bursts

Originating from the UK, I knew that the Brits had an unhealthy fascination with home ownership and property investment. However, their enthusiasm is positively muted by comparison to the zeal with which New Zealanders embrace property ownership, it really is the only game in town. 
So rather than just relying upon the often heard refrain of 'you can't go wrong with property', lets try and delve a little deeper, starting with some of the factors that have influenced this rush to own property, including:

•     The desire to own something tangible

Many people feel much more comfortable owning something they can touch, rather than a stock or bond etc, giving them an added sense of security.

•      The ease of obtaining cheap credit

It is much easier for ‘Joe Blow’ to obtain finance for a house purchase, commercial property or ‘Buy to Let’ than any other investment. Also, with the credit explosion and the relaxation in lending criteria we witnessed throughout most of the last decade, almost anyone with a pulse could obtain a mortgage.

•       The almost complete lack of pension plans in NZ

This lack of pension offering means that most people see property investment as their one and only retirement plan.

•         A tax policy that encourages property investment

For many years the NZ tax regime has favoured property investment with a number of tax breaks, not the least of which being a complete lack of any capital gains tax, making property investment more attractive than other asset classes.

•     A relatively unsophisticated and under-regulated financial services industry

There is still a feel of the ‘wild west’ when it comes to regulation of financial service providers and the services they offer. The Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) has consistently chosen a light approach and this, allied to incompetence and some good old fashioned corruption has undermined investors’ confidence in the sector, leading to a lack of viable and trustworthy alternatives to the old chestnut of property investment.

Of course, many of these factors exist in other parts of the world and it is for precisely this reason that we witnessed a property price boom not only in NZ but globally, in the years running up to the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC).

In the aftermath of the GFC, many of these countries suffered a property price collapse, bringing them down to more ‘normal’ levels. However, Australia and New Zealand suffered less than most, with rather modest falls and quicker recoveries, indeed by some measures NZ prices are almost back to their 2007 highs, especially around the Auckland area.

So what does the future hold? Are prices still overvalued or can we expect to see another price boom? If they are going to fall, how far should we expect them to go? What can history teach us about property boom and busts?

Firstly, lets take a look at the market currently and try to see how it looks in terms of value.

There are three main measurements that are used both locally and internationally as a means of assessing whether a countrys’ housing stock is over or undervalued.

•         The house price to income ratio

When this ratio is at 3 or below, it signifies a market that is affordable. The current figure for national house prices is 4.74 (seriously unaffordable) and for Auckland it is a vertigo inducing 6.18 (severely unaffordable). 

The chart below gives us some historical perspective.

 We can see that although the ratio is below the 2007 peak, it is still nowhere near the long term average.

•        The house price to rent ratio     

      The historical International long term average is 15, and currently this multiple is  at 21.11 having only fallen 6% from its peak, so we still have some way to go. 

•       The trend in ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) house prices.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, all asset prices are 'mean reverting' meaning that they oscillate around a long term average, swinging from under to overvalued and back again. These cycles can happen over many different timeframes, sometimes taking decades to complete a full cycle. However, no matter how long it takes, once the asset has reached its point of maximum overvaluation, the long term average will start to act  like gravity, pulling it back to earth.

The chart below shows real or 'inflation adjusted' house prices in the U.K from 1975 to the present day.

It is easy to see this oscillation around the mean, but one very important point to note is that prices do not just correct back to the mean or 'fair value', they only reach bottom when they are once again undervalued, with the extent of the undervaluation often proportional to the size of the preceeding overvaluation.
Whilst this is a chart of U.K house prices, the same principles hold true the world over.

Here is a chart of the current N.Z situation

Lastly I want to show you what happened when the greatest property price bubble the world has ever seen finally burst. During the 1980's asset bubble, real estate prices in Japan rose by as much as 6 to 7 times. At its peak in 1991 all the land in Japan (a country the size of California) was worth approximately US$ 18 trillion, about 4 times the value of all the property in the US at the time.

Here is the chart of Tokyo land prices.

Look familiar?

Now I am not trying to suggest that N.Z property prices are anywhere near as overvalued as Japans were at its peak. But it should now be reasonably clear that prices are still seriously overvalued and that the correction still has a long way to go.

 But prices are going up again I hear you cry, and indeed they are. So lets look at some of the reasons why, and whether they are sustainable.

• Shortage of new housing stock

Since the GFC there has been a considerable contraction in the number of new homes being built due to excessive costs of both the raw materials and the local government permitting process

• Low interest rates

The RBNZ has kept interest rates at historic lows to try and revive the economy. This has been a boon for both new home buyers making homes more affordable, and existing house owners allowing them to remortgage at cheaper rates.

• Banks once again offering high LVR mortgages

For the banks, the fear from the effects of the GFC has dissipated, to be replaced with their more usual emotion, greed. Having lowered their Loan to Value ratios on their mortgages to much more conservative levels in the aftermath of the economic turmoil, they are now once again chasing business and offering LVR's up around where they were before the crisis. They truly are nothing if not predictable!

• The effects of the Christchurch Earthquake

The loss of thousands of homes has had a profound effect on the property market, and cannot be remedied in the short term.

• Consumer confidence

The memories of the 2008 GFC are fading, to be replaced with confidence that the worst is behind us and it is only a matter of time before we get back to 'normal'.

All of these factors are supportive of the property market, and particularly regarding  the supply side of the equation, will continue to be for some time. But it is the demand side of things where life should get interesting over the next few years.

If we think back to the immediate aftermath of the 2008 credit crisis, there was a sudden and severe drop in consumer confidence leading to a sharp fall in spending, especially in big ticket items, and the tickets don't get much bigger than a house! Also, the overseas funding that the banks use for much of our mortgage lending shut down, due to the freeze in the European credit markets. This lead to a sharp fall in mortgage lending and tightening of mortgage lending criteria (including the LVRs) as the banks became less concerned with making money and more concerned with survival.
So we have already had a taste of what a financial market collapse can do to property values, and unfortunately the next crisis is just around the corner. However the bad news does not end there, as there are a couple of reasons why this time will be worse.

 When the GFC hit in 2008, governments, corporates and individuals alike had all enjoyed a few good years, so the financial books were in decent shape and there was 'fat' in the system. This allowed govenments the world over to trigger massive stimulus packages in an attempt to stimulate global growth. 
 Fast forwarding to today, we see a very different picture. Government finances around the globe look horrible, and after repeated stimulus packages are getting worse every year. Corporates have downsized and cut costs to the bone in order to maintain profitability, and individuals have dipped into savings, remortgaged their homes and used their credit cards in order to pay the bills. In short, over the last 4 years, all the 'fat' has been used up, meaning that when the next crisis hits we will have nothing left to soften the blow.

Secondly, to try to combat the ongoing effects of the GFC, central banks all over the globe have kept interest rates at historically low levels. This has kept the mortgage burden affordable and resulted in floating mortgage rates being consistently lower than fixed, leading to a huge number of householders in N.Z moving their mortgage from fixed to floating.  
The extent of this swing can be seen in the chart below.

  This is all fine until we have a rise in interest rates , and then because so many householders feel its effects at the same time, its negative impact is magnified, (I outlined why I think interest rates will rise sharply in my post Interest Rates: Where are they Heading?).
Also because of the way that the yield curve moves when interest rates rise, mortgagees are often caught out  when they finally try to fix.
 Let us take a  look at the chart below.

In a 'normalised' yield curve (A), floating rates are cheaper than fixed and the   householder therefore has a floating rate mortgage,the world is a happy place! As the situation starts to change, the first thing to happen is that the 'curve' steepens meaning that the fixed rates go up whilst the floating stays the same (B), the world is still a happy place. Lastly, the entire yield curve moves up as floating rates are finally raised (C), and it is only at this point that the majority of householders decide to fix. Unfortunately now the differential between floating and fixed can be quite large, and the lower that rates are to start with, the more this is accentuated with householders often having to find an extra 10 to 25% just to service their debt.

 We can see that there are some important differences between now and 2008, and although there are some supporting factors for the housing market, I expect them to be overwhelmed by the negatives that will arrive with the next crisis.

So, having established that prices are still overvalued, that they always revert to the mean over time, and that many of the current positives for the housing market will not last, should we expect to see a house price collapse? Well the answer is possibly, but probably not.
There are three ways that overvaluations can correct: the price can fall, inflation can erode it over time, or some combination of the two. In the majority of cases it is the third option that is the most frequent as house prices can often be slow to correct. This is because when people are in financial distress they will only consider selling their property once they have exhausted all other means of servicing their debt. Also, people are incredibly reluctant to sell a property for less than their perceived value, irrespective of the fact that prices have dropped and will continue to do so, they will only except the loss when they have no other option.


 It is because inflation often does most of the damage rather than price that leads to the myth that property never goes down. Many people wrongly believe that if their asset is the same price 10 years after they bought it, they are still breaking even. The reality is that with only a  3% inflation rate they will have lost 25% of its value after 10 years as surely as if the price had dropped  by 25%.
We will likely therefore see a correction lasting many years with prices slow to react at first then falling faster as the economy bites, confidence falls and all other options are exhausted. Meanwhile inflation will just keep chipping away in the background, doing what it always does, costing us money.

To conclude, prices may continue to rise in the short term. But once we roll over into the next stage of the financial crisis I expect the correction to begin in earnest. As we saw in the chart of 'real' house prices above, property is currently 25% overvalued. But as I mentioned earlier, the size of the correction is normally proportional to the size of the preceeding boom, meaning that prices will likely correct even further.

 I expect 'real' house prices to have dropped by 40% from their peak by the time the correction is finished, and if the entire financial crisis pans out as I fear it will the figure will be much higher. If you think that is impossible take another look at that chart of Tokyo land prices and also consider that after the Great Depression of the 1930's a number of areas on the US experienced falls of over 90%!


The point to take from all this is that property is just the same as any other asset,it reacts the same all over the world and it does not have some special immunity making it the perfect asset in all places and at all times, in spite of what many people think.
 There are times when it is right to own and there are times when it isn't. 

 The skill is in knowing the difference.

At the Edge of the Cliff

In my first posting on this blog-site – To Buy or Not to Buy (May 2012), I stated that I was expecting another 2008 global financial crisis type event which would lead to a collapse in financial markets. This would trigger a ‘flight to safety’ with Investment Funds ditching ‘risky’ assets and re-investing that money into US Treasury bonds, which would push up the value of the US dollar.

 

However I also stated that at that time, many financial markets were already oversold and I therefore anticipated a rally to occur before we entered the serious collapse.

 

Three months have now passed, and during this time many markets have indeed rallied, some by over 20%. This rally has been fuelled by three main elements.

 

Firstly there has been a lull in the bad news haemorrhaging out of the Eurozone, and with last weeks announcement by ECB president Mario Draghi of a new mechanism called Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) designed to buy unlimited amounts of the bonds of crisis-hit Eurozone countries so helping to keep their interest rates down, allied to   this weeks positive ruling by the German Supreme Court on the legality of the EU’s 500bn euro bailout fund, it has allowed sentiment to improve and once again give hope that a long term solution has been found.

The bad news is that it hasn’t! This new scheme will only help their short term liquidity problems and does nothing to solve the real issues. Although we must give the EU authorities credit for their amazing ability to keep the plates spinning whilst doing absolutely nothing to solve the underlying issues. It really is politics at its very best.

 

Secondly, the US Federal Reserve has confirmed that the stimulus will continue with its recent announcement of more quantitative easing, or QE3. This has also reinforced investor’s belief that there will be a constant stream of cheap money to fuel the increase in asset prices and get us all out of jail.

This addiction to more and more stimulus to levitate prices whilst the underlying health of the financial system deteriorates seems strikingly similar to the downward spiral of a heroin addict, taking ever increasing amounts to achieve the same hit until their system can’t take anymore. Our financial system will likely go the same way.

 

Lastly and most importantly, prices rallied because they were very oversold. This may sound simplistic but it is at the core of how all asset prices move. Basically whilst all asset prices are in a trend (either up or down), they do not move in a straight line. They oscillate around the trend, with investors at times getting over optimistic and pushing prices up too high, and at other times getting too pessimistic and selling prices down too low, swinging like the pendulum on a clock from one extreme to the other.

In May we were at one end of that extreme and so a rally was pretty easy to predict, but where do we stand currently? Do we still have blue skies ahead or are the storm clouds gathering?

 

Well, there are a few things that are cause for concern:

 ·        The strength and duration of the move.

The chart below is of the S&P 500 Index (a broad-based index of US companies) and shows how the index has moved from 1998 to the present day.

 We can see that both the major peaks in 2000 and 2007 occurred around the mid 1500 level, and that this has become a zone of resistance (It’s important to realise though that this is an area of resistance not a distinct price level, and that therefore prices can push through this level or fail to reach it entirely before ‘topping out’).

 

 

 

We also know from looking at previous cyclical bull market rallies (these are shorter term ‘multi-month’ rallies within a longer term ‘multi-year’ bear market) that on average they run for almost three years before topping out, whereafter the bear market resumes.

We are currently at 36 months and counting so this rally is wearing very thin.

 ·         The extent to which technical analysis indicators are overbought or oversold.

I use a number of technical indicators to help me gauge things such as investor sentiment, momentum and relative strength. Almost all of them are either already into overbought territory or well on their way, meaning that conditions are ripe for a correction, and although there is nothing to stop these indicators becoming even more overbought in the short term, it does tell us that we are getting close to a peak.

 ·        Seasonal Factors

Many financial markets tend to be weaker from May to August, but the September/October timeframe is often the worst time of the year for stock markets.

 ·        Commitment of Traders (COT) data.

This information gives a breakdown of investors in the Traded Options market and classifies them according to certain categories - small speculator, large speculator or commercial, for our purposes we can think of the speculators as ‘mug punters’ and the commercials as ‘the professionals’.

What tends to happen is that as a rally matures and prices rise, more and more speculators get sucked in and join the bandwagon, buying traded options that profit if the price continues to rise (known as going ‘long’) - the more the price rises, the more bullish they become and the more options they want to buy. Meanwhile the professionals, knowing that the price is overextended (see the earlier pendulum analogy) and will shortly correct, are happy to keep on selling options to the speculators knowing that once the trend changes and prices fall, they will make money (known as going ‘short’).

 Therefore as the rally continues, the ‘mugs’ get longer and the ‘pros’ get shorter, and by monitoring this dynamic, and comparing these extremes with previous examples we get a useful indicator as to when a rally has run its course.

The chart below is of the current COT data for Silver, and shows the weekly change in the open positions of the speculators and commercials.

 

 

 As the price of silver has risen, the ‘mug punters’ (represented by the combined grey and yellow bars) have become increasingly bullish and have continued to add to their long positions. If we focus on the red bars we can see the corresponding increase in the ‘pros’ short position over the same period.

Previously when we have reached these kinds of extremes the rally has been near its end, and then when prices collapse the commercials clean up by buying back their ‘short’ positions for a profit whilst the speculators panic out of their ‘long’ positions at a loss. Once again losing their shirts, crawling away to lick their wounds until the next time.

It’s not called a suckers rally for nothing!

 

So when we look at the bigger picture there are a number of warning signs.

• The rally from the 2009 lows has already gone on longer than average.
• We are nearing an area of resistance where previous rallies have terminated. 
• Many technical indicators are in overbought territory suggesting a top is near.
• We are entering the most dangerous time of the year for stock markets.
• The professionals are getting very short in a number of markets including gold and silver, in anticipation of price falls.

 We are seeing increasingly linked financial markets, with investors selling out of US Treasury bonds, selling the US dollar, and putting this cash to work in stock, commodity and currency markets. All fuelled by a diet of endless stimulus.

Unfortunately when this kind of woolly, simplistic thinking takes root, it normally means that nobody is actually thinking at all, with a very predictable result.

 The markets may trend higher for a little longer whilst investors chase the rally, basking in the warm glow of cheap money. But the fat lady is warming up.

It should be quite a show.

 

Interest Rates: Where Are They Heading?

If you ask most people what they know about interest rates, they might just about be able to tell you what their current mortgage rate is. If you ask them about the ‘yield curve’ and where rates are likely heading, you will almost certainly get a blank stare and a swift change of subject!

The point being that most of us know virtually nothing about what interest rates are, why they move and where they might be going, and yet we are seemingly quite happy to take on large debts, either for a mortgage or business loan, with the view that as rates are currently low it’s a good time to borrow more and ‘she’ll be right’.

This attitude has prevailed in many places around the world, and because of the resulting debt that has been amassed, our debt servicing costs will become crippling should interest rates start to rise.

We will discuss what the future for rates holds in a moment, but firstly let’s look a bit closer at how interest rates are generated.

 In most Western societies the process is pretty similar in that the Central Bank sets the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight (In NZ this is known as the Official Cash Rate or ‘OCR’).

 Under normal circumstances this is the only rate over which the Central Bank has direct control. There are then a range of Government bills or bonds of various durations, ranging from one month to thirty years depending on the particular country.

These bonds pay a fixed dividend or ‘coupon’, but the price you buy or sell the bond at can move up or down and is decided by the marketplace, as a result of this relationship the interest rate of the bond moves inversely to the price of the bond.

 For example:

At Issue

 Price of Bond  $100    Coupon $10     Interest Rate  10%

Bond Price moves up                              Rate goes down

 Price of Bond  $125    Coupon  $10    Interest Rate  8%

Bond price moves down                         Rate goes up

 Price of Bond  $ 75      Coupon $10    Interest Rate  13.33%

It is worth noting therefore, that Central Banks the world over cannot control the yield curve, only the ‘overnight rate’, unless they directly intervene by buying bonds of longer duration, as many are now doing via Quantitative Easing.

In a ‘normal’ market, the interest rate increases as you move out along the ‘yield curve’, meaning that 10 year bonds will have a higher interest rate than 5 year bonds, which will in turn have a higher rate than 2 year bonds, etc.

This can be illustrated in the chart below of a stylized ‘Normal Yield Curve”

This intuitively makes sense. As a lender you would justifiably expect to earn more in interest the longer your money was tied up.

 However, there are numerous factors that can affect the yield curve, including – economic growth and inflation expectations, perceived investment risks, changes to taxation regimes, political uncertainty, comparisons to alternative investments, changes in the liquidity within the financial system, and as already mentioned direct Central Bank intervention, often making the reality anything but ‘normal’.

Interest Rates though are like most other things in that they follow a long term trend. So where in that trend do we currently stand?

Well, New Zealand is currently enjoying some of its lowest interest rates for decades. The same can be said for the majority of developed countries, as globally rates have been trending down for over thirty years, caused by a combination of low inflation, relatively high returns on investments and a seemingly inexhaustible supply of easy credit.

The chart below shows the US 30 year mortgage rate (an excellent proxy for global interest rates), and the extent and duration of the move is quite apparent.

We can see that although there have been periods of rising rates, sometimes lasting for a few years; the long-term trend has clearly been down.

If we now look at a longer term chart of the US Federal Funds Rate (the ‘overnight rate’) we can see that prior to the collapse from the highs of 1980, interest rates actually staged a thirty year rally!

So putting the information from these charts together, we can confirm that interest rates do move in predictable long –term cycles, with rallies and corrections along the way, and that with rates at their current generational lows and factoring in the number of years that they have been falling, it would appear that the downtrend in place since 1980 should shortly come to an end.

However, things may not be quite that simple.

Remember I said earlier that the period since the 80’s was driven by easy credit, good investment returns and low inflation? Well whilst that may have been the case in the early years, it slowly morphed into a low investment return, high inflation environment where more and more credit was used to paper over the cracks.

 As we now know, the collapse of this house of cards ultimately lead to the 2008 global financial crisis, and it is the actions taken by Central Banks around the world to try and stimulate growth that has pushed rates to these historic lows in the years since.

Unfortunately, once interest rates are down at these very low levels, the action of cutting them even further to stimulate the economy tends to have very little impact (the so called ‘pushing on a string’ effect).

And irrespective of low rates, the unwinding of the excessive debt burden will lead to numerous countries defaulting. There is no way to stop it.

So with these repercussions rolling on for the next few years, Central Banks will likely keep rates low for some considerable time, and that is precisely what I expect them to do.

But as we now know, they do not control the entire yield curve (at least not without creating other major problems – there is no free lunch!), and as we can see from what is unfolding in Europe with Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy etc, even with low ‘overnight rates’ once the marketplace senses that a country is in trouble and might not repay it’s debts, its bonds are sold aggressively and interest rates rise dramatically compounding the problem and making default even more likely.

This is what we are currently witnessing. Like a giant queue of naughty schoolboys lined up to take their punishment, ranked in order of how bad they’ve been, with the Greek kid at the front. And once he’s had his six of the best, it’s the Spanish kids turn and so on.

So we in New Zealand may currently be basking in the warm glow of low interest rates, but as the sovereign debt crisis unfolds and builds, moving from Europe through Japan and finally the US, at some stage we will be number one in the queue, and as we have seen from the charts above, when the trend finally changes interest rates have a hell of a long way to climb.

So is now a good time to take on debt because of historic low interest rates?

Well, if you can weather a substantial rise in rates and still be ok, or if you intend on paying down the debt over the next 2 to 3 years then the answer may be yes. But if you are relying on rates staying where they currently are over the long term, the future will likely be very painful indeed.

Just ask the Greeks.

Gold: Why and How to own it

In my last post, 'Don't be a Rabbit in the Headlights' I stated the following:

'Turning to investments it becomes slightly easier. Basically the majority of things will do badly, including stock markets and property. Stock markets typically halve during these periods, and property, as I have already alluded to, is seriously overvalued.

The one ray of light is the precious metals. They will continue to act as a hedge against the global crisis, and the more the crisis unfolds the better they will do.'

 In this post I intend to firstly show you that the precious metals sector still has a long way to go before it peaks, and then look at the various ways you can gain exposure to it, depending on your individual appetite for risk.

Before we get started I want to point out that for simplicitys sake I will be talking mainly about gold. However, silver will also benefit and will loosely follow gold's moves although not exactly (gold tends to lead the PM's sector moves, whilst silver often lags initially and then catches up explosively).

Gold has had a tremendous move since the $255 low in 2001, reaching an all time high of $1918 in August of last year. At first glance this seems extreme and would suggest that the top has been set, however to help get a better understanding we need to look at both  what preceded this move, and how normal bull market cycles climax. Once we get this perspective we will be able to see whether what we have witnessed thus far tallies with what we should be seeing.

So, to help put the move from 2001 into perspective, what happened in the years prior?

The last cyclical gold bull market ran from January 1970 to January 1980,This was the most recent period of severe financial strain to occur since the Great Depression of the 1930's. During this time, gold rallied 2429% higher.

From this peak it then began a cyclical bear market, and proceeded to fall for the next 20 years down to the 2001 low of $255, a fall of 70% over the two decade period. During this  exact same period  stock markets, bond markets, housing and other asset prices were benefiting from the explosion of cheap credit and enjoyed some of their greatest rallies ever.

By contrast, our current gold bull market move is a more modest 752% to the August 2011 peak. So we can see that although it feels like we have had a large rally thus far, by historical standards we are barely off the starting blocks.

Next, I want to look at the form that a regular bull market takes.

Lets take a look at the chart below:

 It shows the price movement in the Nasdaq Composite Index ( US based index of Technology companies), from its bull market beginnings in 1980,  its peak in 2000 and its subsequent collapse.  A few things immediately  become  apparent when you look at the chart. Firstly, the speed at which prices increase accelerates as the bull market wears on, with the price increases becoming parabolic as we near the end point. And secondly, the transistions between phases 1,2 and 3 are seperated by sizable corrections, which at the time feel very much like the whole bull market rally is over.

This upward sloping curve, or parabola, is the typical shape and style of a fully-fledged bull market. It stays roughly the same irrrespective of whether the underlying investment is an index, commodity, stock, bond or anything else, and the reason for this is that it is a reflection of human nature and how we react to greed.  The nature of the actual investment itself is irrelevant, the common theme is the way in which greed manifests itself, which fortunately for us helps to make it predictable.

If we now look at a chart of the current bull market in gold, we can see that we are nowhere near the 'blow-off' top that has been witnessed in prior bull markets, in fact it looks much more likely we are at the correction seperating phase 2 from phase 3. Also, at the peak we should be expecting almost everybody to be invested in it, talking about it and unable to see an end to the rally (the most recent example of this being the property boom that peaked in 2007). This is clearly not the case as the overwhelming majority of people don't even consider gold an investment let alone actually own some.

 

Having looked at the reasons why I feel the PM's sector has a long way to go, let us now turn our attention to how you can invest in it.

There are a number of ways to gain exposure to the sector depending upon an individuals attitude to risk. Lets start at the safest end of the spectrum.

You can buy physical gold or silver coins( or bullion) from your National Mint. They will normally offer you a range of options, the absolute safest being to have them in your possession, in case of an armageddon type scenario, alternatively you can have the mint store the physical coins or bullion on your behalf, or lastly you can own unallocated bullion at the mint, which means that you are one of a pool of people that own an amount of bullion stored at the mint on your behalf, but you do not have the right to a specific piece of bullion i.e. you cannot rock up to the mint and ask to see your bullion, unlike the second option where you do have some specific coins or bullion that you can see.

I would advise everybody to have some exposure to physical gold or silver, between 5-10% of your net worth. The manner of your holding really comes down to your own comfort zone, with some people only happy with the metal in their hands and others a bit more relaxed.

Next, you can buy shares in the companies that mine the gold and silver. Historically, the mining shares tend to leverage the price movements of the underlying metal, over the lifetime of the bull market, however they can be extremely volatile and at times can substantially underperform. It is for this reason that unless you are someone that is relaxed about the volatility and doesn't check how your portfolio is doing every day, they are probably best avoided if you want to have a long, happy life. If you do invest in them I would recommend taking possesssion of the share certificates and not owning them through the nominee account of your broker, and exposing yourself should your broker default over the coming months and years (and many will).

Lastly, there are financial instruments called Exchange Traded Funds ( ETF's) that trade on Stock Exchanges all over the world. They have exploded in popularity over the last few years and they allow investors to gain exposure to all manner of investments that were historicaly quite hard to trade. As a consequence it is now quite easy to gain exposure to gold or silver through these instruments. However, the problem is that although the price of the ETF mirrors that of gold or silver, you do not have any direct ownership of the gold or silver. The ETF merely trades in line with it. Also you are exposed to the creditworthiness of whoever sponsors the ETF, so if they default you may lose your money.

I currently feel that these ETF's offer decent exposure to the sector for many people, however there will come a point in the cycle when they will become too risky and money should be redistributed into physical gold or silver.

There are other ways to gain exposure, but I believe they are unsuitable to mainstream investors.

To conclude, looking at both historical precedent and general bull market dynamics I believe we have a long way to run before this current precious metals bull market has run its course.

That being said, we are currently in a consolidation that I believe will take both gold and silver lower before we reach bottom. I think gold will likely reach $1300, but it is possible that it could go as low as 1150 before the correction is finally complete, as a result there is no need to rush in at the moment, simply organise yourself so that when the bottom is reached you can pull the trigger. As I have stated previously I expect to see gold at $5000 and silver at $100 an ounce over the next few years, but at the moment patience is the key.

If you do want to own some shares but are unsure as to which ones to go for, simply post a comment at kiwiblackers.blogspot.co.nz and I will add your email to my specific precious metals bulletin that goes out whenever there is something of note in the sector, and contains what I consider to be some of the better buys.